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Amazon.com Review
Bestselling author Nassim Nicholas Taleb continues his exploration of randomness in his fascinating new book, The Black Swan, in which he examines the influence of highly improbable and unpredictable events that have massive impact. Engaging and enlightening, The Black Swan is a book that may change the way you think about the world, a book that Chris Anderson calls, "a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature." See Anderson's entire guest review below. Guest Reviewer: Chris AndersonChris Anderson is editor-in-chief of Wired magazine and the author of The Long Tail: Why the Future of Business Is Selling Less of More. Four hundred years ago, Francis Bacon warned that our minds are wired to deceive us. "Beware the fallacies into which undisciplined thinkers most easily fall--they are the real distorting prisms of human nature." Chief among them: "Assuming more order than exists in chaotic nature." Now consider the typical stock market report: "Today investors bid shares down out of concern over Iranian oil production." Sigh. We're still doing it. Our brains are wired for narrative, not statistical uncertainty. And so we tell ourselves simple stories to explain complex thing we don't--and, most importantly, can't--know. The truth is that we have no idea why stock markets go up or down on any given day, and whatever reason we give is sure to be grossly simplified, if not flat out wrong. Nassim Nicholas Taleb first made this argument in Fooled by Randomness, an engaging look at the history and reasons for our predilection for self-deception when it comes to statistics. Now, in The Black Swan: the Impact of the Highly Improbable, he focuses on that most dismal of sciences, predicting the future. Forecasting is not just at the heart of Wall Street, but itÂ’s something each of us does every time we make an insurance payment or strap on a seat belt. The problem, Nassim explains, is that we place too much weight on the odds that past events will repeat (diligently trying to follow the path of the "millionaire next door," when unrepeatable chance is a better explanation). Instead, the really important events are rare and unpredictable. He calls them Black Swans, which is a reference to a 17th century philosophical thought experiment. In Europe all anyone had ever seen were white swans; indeed, "all swans are white" had long been used as the standard example of a scientific truth. So what was the chance of seeing a black one? Impossible to calculate, or at least they were until 1697, when explorers found Cygnus atratus in Australia. Nassim argues that most of the really big events in our world are rare and unpredictable, and thus trying to extract generalizable stories to explain them may be emotionally satisfying, but it's practically useless. September 11th is one such example, and stock market crashes are another. Or, as he puts it, "History does not crawl, it jumps." Our assumptions grow out of the bell-curve predictability of what he calls "Mediocristan," while our world is really shaped by the wild powerlaw swings of "Extremistan." In full disclosure, I'm a long admirer of Taleb's work and a few of my comments on drafts found their way into the book. I, too, look at the world through the powerlaw lens, and I too find that it reveals how many of our assumptions are wrong. But Taleb takes this to a new level with a delightful romp through history, economics, and the frailties of human nature. --Chris Anderson
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From Booklist
In business and government, major money is spent on prediction. Uselessly, according to Taleb, who administers a severe thrashing to MBA- and Nobel Prize-credentialed experts who make their living from economic forecasting. A financial trader and current rebel with a cause, Taleb is mathematically oriented and alludes to statistical concepts that underlie models of prediction, while his expressive energy is expended on roller-coaster passages, bordering on gleeful diatribes, on why experts are wrong. They neglect Taleb's metaphor of "the black swan," whose discovery invalidated the theory that all swans are white. Taleb rides this manifestation of the unpredicted event into a range of phenomena, such as why a book becomes a best-seller or how an entrepreneur becomes a billionaire, taking pit stops with philosophers who have addressed the meaning of the unexpected and confounding. Taleb projects a strong presence here that will tempt outside-the-box thinkers into giving him a look. Gilbert TaylorCopyright © American Library Association. All rights reserved
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Product details
Series: Incerto (Book 2)
Hardcover: 366 pages
Publisher: Random House; 1 edition (April 17, 2007)
Language: English
ISBN-10: 9781400063512
ISBN-13: 978-1400063512
ASIN: 1400063515
Product Dimensions:
6.4 x 1.5 x 9.5 inches
Shipping Weight: 1.6 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)
Average Customer Review:
4.0 out of 5 stars
1,306 customer reviews
Amazon Best Sellers Rank:
#33,750 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)
My girlfriend was working towards her MBA and received the following assignment. She was too look at the stock performance of a company over a period of time, compare it to news reports and formulate an explanation for the rise and fall of stock prices. In other words she was asked to predict the past. Ah, Economics. `The Black Swan' is about rare and unforeseen occurrences with massive repercussions that prompt `experts' to quickly explain their cause in order to justify their titles as `experts'. We can then all feel secure that our lives aren't controlled by the capricious winds of events beyond our control. The author unleashes an attack on statisticians, economists and others like psychiatrists, college admissions officers, and councilors who claim a high level of knowledge but predict at about the level of a layman. It took about half the book before I felt that I might be starting to understand the authors point and even after putting the book down I'm still not sure I get it.The number one target of the authors wrath is economists stating that, "the Nobel medal in economics has not been good for society or knowledge" calling the prize "a public relations coup by economists aiming to put their field on higher footing than it deserves" To that I would say "AMEN". Economists have been obsessed with placing economics among the hard sciences. The Chicago school and supply-siders are all convinced that economics can be boiled down to equations on a black board under the assumption that human actors will all operate according to predictable patterns. However the author writes, "If people make inconsistent choices and decisions, the central core of economic optimization fails. You can no longer produce a "general theory," and without one you cannot predict". This is the crux of the problem. Many of these Adam Smith, `Invisible Hand' economists have a worldview built on a faulty premise, that human's will always or even generally make reasonable or logical business decisions. The other assumption is that economics are predictable rather than dominated by Black Swan's but as the author writes, "In the last fifty years, the ten most extreme days in the financial markets represent half the returns" That's a pretty staggering pronouncement.Be forewarned that this book gets exceedingly technical in later chapters particularly when the author argues that we live in a world based on Mandelbrot's fractals rather than the Gaussian bell curve. The book is also a rallying cry for skeptics and as someone who picks up every issue of Skeptic magazine I found it quite refreshing. Skepticism is more than disbelief it's about questioning conventional wisdom and carefully deliberating the truth or falsity of a statement or idea. It's a lot easier said than done. I have to say that Mr. Taleb exhibits a bit of a mean streak throughout the book. He does not suffer fools lightly and frequently lists people by name that he disagrees with (and believe me when he disagrees he REALLY disagrees). Most of these people are probably only known in the statistical or economic circles and it seemed a tad excessive to call them out in a best selling book. The author admonishes those who engage in Ad Hominem attacks but some of his definitely skirt the edge. That aside The Black Swan is a book filled with great philosophical musings even if I'm still not sure I totally get it. I give it high marks.
Already lots of reviews on this work but I have an additional thought or two. I would have liked to have given this book a higher rating but Dr. Taleb's incessant jibes at mathematicians, economists, those working withing the financial markets, and even biologists (!!!) quickly gets VERY old. There are sections where every single page has some reference to this field or that which, in his estimation, is populated by nothing but the village idiots.I can certainly understand him taking exception with those who have, at least in the lead up to 2008, steered us onto the financial rocks, but his beating of the same drum gets quickly stale. Here I think of the maxim that at some point you have to fix the problem and not the blame. This book could have been a hundred pages shorter--perhaps a 20,000 word piece of long-form journalism.He also drifts to and fro quite a bit in his writing. While I truly enjoy his erudition and a touch of the circumlocution, this work would have been much better served if he had kept to the task at hand.There are a couple of redeeming aspects to his effort however. His admonition that it is better to prepare than it is to predict are wise words in any walk of life and here he frames them nicely.Also, in the epilogue he lists his "Ten principles for a black swan robust society." These are wonderful admonitions such as society should not socialize the losses and privatize the gains. Capitalism is about rewards and punishments not just rewards is another good point. This short section is well worth your time.I also liked his introduction to the reader of the concept of iatrogenics--making sure no lasting harm is done while trying to help.This would have worked much better in 20K words and without the snide comments regarding others and their fields of study. I think an admonishment that fits here is the "play the ball not the man."Neal Schier - June 2018
The first book that I read in the four-volume "Incerto" set by Nassim Kaleb was "Antifragile," so my reading of "The Black Swan" is out of sequence. However, I am glad that I came to it in its second edition, with footnotes addressing some of the criticisms made of it (tip: flip to the footnote as soon as you come across the symbol identifying it rather reading on to the end of the chapter where they are listed). While highly relevant to the dismal science of economics, it is far from a dismal tome. Some of the anecdotes will have you chuckling or even laughing out loud! It is a highly stimulating and entertaining book and will particularly delight those who enjoy the debunking of wrong-headed purveyors of elaborate academic theories that are not just useless but actually harmful. If this sounds like a book you might enjoy, be aware that the four-volume Incerto series is available as a set, something I found out too late to profit from the knowledge. I intend to purchase the other two volumes and recommend the set. His treatment of the devastating events known as Black Swans ought to be required reading for all who would like to avoid causing or experiencing them.
This is both an interesting book from the topic, how we tend to misinterpret and miss highly unlikely events, but also it is a statement to human resilience based on Mr. Taleb's history in emigrating from Lebanon. His views of the world are consistently positive and upbeat. Many of us could learn a lot from Nassim Taleb.The book covers both the math as well as the narrative intuition for understanding rare events and why we tend to underestimate both their frequency and effects on our best laid plans.The book is full of hundreds of great examples, and it is written in a very approachable style.Whether you are a hard core statistician or just someone interested in statistics, this is a great book for you.
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